How Long Until the End?

Last spring, I wrote about a group of geriatricians and researchers assembling online a variety of geriatric indexes that do a reasonably good job of predicting mortality for those older than age 60. Since a number of tests and treatments ought to take life expectancy into account, they reasoned, physicians should have these validated tools in one handy online location.

Their question was whether the Web site they were putting together should be accessible to the public as well. Would non-professionals be apt to misinterpret the numbers? Or to decide that if they had plenty of life expectancy remaining, they might as well smoke? While the researchers were debating, I put this question to New Old Age blog readers: Do you want to be able to use the site, too?

The near-unanimity of your responses was startling. Roughly 75 people commented, and roughly 72 of you said (I’m paraphrasing), “Hell, yes.”

As promised, therefore, I’m alerting you to the debut of ePrognosis. The Web site includes 16 interactive assessment tools — some for older adults in hospitals and nursing homes, some for those still living in the community, some that predict the odds of living for six months or a year, some for four or five years. The site asks if you are a health care professional; there is no verification. The researchers anticipate that some members of public will venture onto the Web site to learn a bit on their own.

All kinds of health care decisions are influenced, or should be, by how much longer you’re likely to survive. Should you or your elderly relative keep taking a statin? Agree to a mammogram? Enroll in hospice care?

Plugging in my own variables, I see that I am doomed to further colonoscopies. But my father, at 89, is a different story.

The ePrognosis creators have explained all this in a study published in The Journal of the American Medical Association. You can also read my news story about it.

If you venture to the site, I hope you’ll come back and tell us what you think. Was it simple to use? Will it help you make decisions?

Do you wish you didn’t know?